MZF Protocol Tokenomics - Scenario Model

🎯 MASTER SCENARIO COMPARISON (2025-2029)

Complete probability-weighted scenario analysis with Bear, Base, and Bull case projections through 2029 halving event

METRIC	🔴 BEAR CASE	🟡 BASE CASE	🟢 BULL CASE
📈 TOKEN PRICE PROGRESSION
Q4 2025 (TGE)	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50
2026 Year-End	$0.70	$2.50	$5.00
2027 Year-End	$1.25	$6.00	$16.00
2028 Year-End	$2.00	$13.00	$45.00
2029 Year-End (Post-Halving)	$3.00	$26.00	$100.00
💰 RETURNS & VALUATION
ROI from $0.50 TGE	6x (500%)	52x (5,100%)	200x (19,900%)
Market Cap (2029)	$705M	$6.1B	$22B
Effective Circulating Supply (2029)	235M tokens	234.6M tokens	220M tokens
Revenue (2029)	$40M	$48M	$52M
Price/Revenue Multiple	18x	127x	423x
📊 ECOSYSTEM METRICS (2029)
Token Holders	45,000	150,000	450,000
Applications Received	6,000	8,500	12,000
Buyback Amount (40% Rev)	$16M	$19.2M	$20.8M
💎 WARRANT PORTFOLIO (2029)
Successful TGEs	3-5	8-12	15-25
Success Rate	20%	35%	45%
Avg. Return per Warrant	5x	15x	40x
Total Warrant Value	$10M	$80M	$750M
🏆 MARKET POSITIONING (2029)
DeFi Ranking	#100-150	#18-30	#6-12
Exchange Listings	Coinstore only	Coinstore + Tier-2 (MEXC/Gate) + 1x Tier-1	Coinstore + Tier-2 + Multiple Tier-1 (Binance, OKX, Bybit)
⚡ Halving Impact (2029)	+25% pump	+40% sustained	+75% FOMO spike

🔴 BEAR CASE
Conservative growth
$3.00
6x ROI | $705M Market Cap
Coinstore only, slower adoption

🟡 BASE CASE
Expected trajectory
$26.00
52x ROI | $6.1B Market Cap
Tier-2 + 1x Tier-1 listing

🟢 BULL CASE
Explosive growth
$100.00
200x ROI | $22B Market Cap
Multiple Tier-1 listings (Binance, OKX, Bybit)

Year	Quarter/Event	Bear Case	Base Case	Bull Case	Key Drivers
2025	Q4 TGE	$0.50	$0.50	$0.50	Token launch, initial liquidity, 17.5M circulating (3.5%)
2026	Mid-Year	$0.60	$1.50	$3.00	First funded startups, staking rewards launch, vesting begins
2026	Year-End	$0.70	$2.50	$5.00	40% / 400% / 900% ROI \| ~183M circulating
2027	Mid-Year	$1.00	$4.00	$10.00	First warrant exits, tier-2 listings (Base/Bull), 5% APY staking
2027	Year-End	$1.25	$6.00	$16.00	150% / 1,100% / 3,100% ROI \| ~283M circulating
2028	Mid-Year	$1.60	$9.00	$30.00	Pre-halving accumulation, all tokens fully vested (500M)
2028	Year-End	$2.00	$13.00	$45.00	300% / 2,500% / 8,900% ROI \| 495M effective supply
2029	Q2 Halving Event	$2.40	$18.00	$57.00	🔥 50% SUPPLY REDUCTION: 495M → 247M
2029	Year-End Post-Halving	$3.00	$26.00	$100.00	+25% / +40% / +75% halving premium \| ~235M effective
FINAL ROI FROM $0.50 TGE		6x (500%)	52x (5,100%)	200x (19,900%)	4-year holding period to 2029

⚡ Halving Event Analysis (2029):

Bear Case: Moderate market reaction, short-lived price spike from $2.00 → $2.40 → $3.00 as supply shock creates temporary buying pressure
Base Case: Strong market recognition of scarcity, price jumps from $13.00 → $18.00 → $26.00 with sustained momentum through year-end
Bull Case: Viral halving narrative, explosive FOMO buying drives price from $45.00 → $57.00 → $100.00, attracting mainstream attention
Market Psychology: Halving events historically trigger 6-12 month bull runs in deflationary tokens (see Bitcoin 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings)
Supply Dynamics: ~495M → ~235M effective supply creates instant 50%+ scarcity while revenue/buybacks continue, amplifying price impact
Effective Supply Calculation: Bear: 235M, Base: 234.6M, Bull: 220M (varies by buyback intensity and market conditions)

Metric	2026 (Year 1)			2029 (Year 4 Post-Halving)
Metric	Bear	Base	Bull	Bear	Base	Bull
Token Price	$0.70	$2.50	$5.00	$3.00	$26.00	$100.00
Effective Circulating Supply	~183M	~183M	~183M	235M	234.6M	220M
Market Cap	$128M	$458M	$915M	$705M	$6.1B	$22B
Annual Revenue	$1-2M	$2-3M	$3-4M	$40M	$48M	$52M
Cumulative Buybacks	~0.5M	~0.8M	~1M	~15M	~15.4M	~30M
Token Holders	5,000	15,000	50,000	45,000	150,000	450,000
Applications	500	1,000	2,000	6,000	8,500	12,000
Warrant Portfolio Value	$1-2M	$5-10M	$20-30M	$10M	$80M	$750M